- 1Default rates across the MCA industry dropped to 11.
- 22% in January, down from a peak of 16.
- 3Position count is the strongest single predictor of loss in the data — stronger than industry or FICO.
What happened
Default rates across the MCA industry dropped to 11. 2% in January, down from a peak of 16. 8% in November 2024, according to Moneyline's proprietary data.
Moneyline confirmed the details with 1 people with direct knowledge, who asked not to be named because the matter is not yet public. This story on default rates is developing; we will update it as filings and statements land.
Why it matters
The numbers reframe a debate the industry has had for years on anecdote alone. Position count, not industry or FICO, is the single strongest predictor of loss in the sample — and the gap widens sharply once a merchant crosses into a third position.
The numbers behind it
The figures below come from Moneyline's data desk, drawn from verified member submissions and public filings. They are directional, not audited — but they are the clearest picture available today.
What we're hearing
Underwriters we spoke with were unsurprised by the direction and surprised by the magnitude. Several said they would revisit position limits in the next pricing cycle; two said they already had.
Stacking isn't a merchant problem. It's an information problem we've chosen not to solve.
What to watch
- Position limits in Q4 pricing updates from the top 10 funders
- Whether a shared real-time position registry gains traction
- Default curves for 2nd-position restaurant paper through winter
Reporting by Moneyline Editorial. Tips and corrections: editorial@moneyline.com.
